Earth’s climate has experienced notable changes during the past 50-70 years when global surface temperature has risen by 0.8°C during the 20th century. This was a consequence of the rise in the concentration of biogenic gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, and ozone) in the atmosphere that contribute, along with water vapor, to the so-called ‘greenhouse effect’. Most of the emissions of greenhouse gases have been, and still are, the product of human activities, namely, the excessive use of fossil energy, deforestations in the humid tropics with associated poor land use-management, and wide-scale degradation of soils under crop cultivation and animal/pasture ecosystems. General Circulation Models predict that atmospheric CO2 concentration will probably reach 700 μmol(CO2) mol-1. This can result in rise of Earth’s temperature from 1.5 to over 5°C by the end of this century. This may instigate 0.60-1.0 m rise in sea level, with impacts on coastal lowlands across continents. Crop modeling predicts significant changes in agricultural ecosystems. The mid- and
high-latitude regions might reap the benefits of warming and CO2 fertilization effects via increasing total production and yield of C3 plants coupled with greater water-use efficiencies. The tropical/subtropical regions will probably suffer the worst impacts of global climate changes. These impacts include wide-scale socioeconomic changes, such as degradation and losses of natural resources, low agricultural production, and lower crop yields, increased risks of hunger, and above all waves of human migration and dislocation. Due to inherent cassava tolerance to heat, water stress, and poor soils, this crop is highly adaptable to warming climate. Such a trait should enhance its role in food security in the tropics and subtropics., M. A. El-Sharkawy., and Obsahuje bibliografii
Almost four decades have passed since the new field of ecosystem simulation sprang into full force as an added tool for a sound research in an ever-advancing scientific front. The enormous advances and new discoveries that recently took place in the field of molecular biology and basic genetics added more effective tools, have strengthened and increased the efficiency of science outputs in various areas, particularly in basic biological sciences. Now, we are entering into a more promising stage in science, i.e. 'post-genomics', where both simulation modelling and molecular biology tools are integral parts of experimental research in agricultural sciences. I briefly review the history of simulation of crop/environment systems in the light of advances in molecular biology, and most importantly the essential role of experimental research in developing and constructing more meaningful and effective models and technologies. Such anticipated technologies are expected to lead into better management of natural resources in relation to crop communities in particular and plant ecosystems in general, that might enhance productivity faster. Emphasis is placed on developing new technologies to improve agricultural productivity under stressful environments and to ensure sustainable economic development. The latter is essential since available natural resources, particularly land and water, are increasingly limiting.