This article reports a method for forecasting an earthquake by synchronous anomalies of optical astronomic time-latitude residuals. The so-called optical astronomic time-latitude residuals for a certain astrometric instrument are the rest after deducting the effects of Earth whole motion from the astronomical time and latitude observations determined by the instrument. Forecasting practice for four earthquakes around the Yunnan Observatory occurring after 2010 shows that it does not generate false forecasts, and also does not miss forecasts of major earthquakes. This forecasting practice proves that the synchronous anomalies of astronomical time-latitude residuals can provide effective warning sign for earthquake occurrence around observatory station, thus deserves attention and further study. and Su Youjin, Gao Yuping, Hu Hui.
This paper examines the results of fault microdisplacement analyses obtained from sites located both at the surface and underground in western Slovakia. The results of surface monitoring showed significant annual climatic effects on the various displacement components. In contrast, the results of underground monitoring in caves showed minimal climatic effects. It is seen that the influence of climate decreases markedly with depth. The yearly peak-to-peak amplitude of climatic variations may be as high as 1 mm at the surface but only 0.1 mm underground. The amount of tectonic displacement can be determined once such climatic considerations have been taken into account. Our fault displacement measurements show horizontal strike-slip rates of tenths of mm or hundredths of mm per year. In addition, vertical displacements have been recorded at Prekážka Quarry, Driny Cave, and Slopy Cave. The network is sufficiently dense to identify changes in displacement activity recorded during recent, significant, earthquake events. Furthermore, three gauges have also helped to determine the local stress orientation in Driny Cave., Miloš Briestenský, Blahoslav Košťák, Josef Stemberk, Ľubomír Petro, Jozef Vozár and Lucia Fojtíková., and Obsahuje bibliografii
The physical properties of tidal gravimetric instruments allow recording, not only tidal effects, but also waves generated by earthquakes. Three gravimetric stations with determined transfer functions and co-located seismic stations from the observatories in Western and Central Europe were selected for analysis. The observatories are equipped with almost all types of sensors available on the market, which allow for thorough analysis of earthquake recordings in the period range of 10–1000 s. In total, over 10,000 traces of worldwide earthquakes were investigated. The saturation levels of gravimeters as well as a correlation between the gravimetric and seismometric signals of an earthquake were carefully analysed. A simple processing scheme of gravimetric signal of earthquakes was adopted thanks to the probabilistic power spectral density analysis of continuous recordings. The detail analysis of transfer function of gravimeters allowed to define a period range when a sensitivity coefficient (calibration factor) and a time lag value only can be used to properly describe the properties of instruments. What’s more, it has been shown based on the calculated group-velocity dispersion curves of fundamental mode of Rayleigh waves, that the Earth’s mantle structure can be determined for greater depths from the recording of tidal gravimeters than from typical broad-band seismometers.
This paper presents a hybrid probabilistic neural network (PNN) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) techniques to predict the soil liquefaction. The PSO algorithm is employed in selecting the optimal smoothing parameter of the PNN to improve the forecasting accuracy. Seven parameters such as earthquake magnitude, normalized peak horizontal acceleration at ground surface, standard penetration number, penetration resistance, relative compaction, mean grain diameter and groundwater table are selected as the evaluating indices. The predictions from the PSO-PNN model were compared with those from two models: backpropagation neural network (BPNN) model and support vector machine (SVM) model. The study concluded that the proposed PSO-PNN model can be used as a reliable approach for predicting soil liquefaction.
Set of events from West Bohemian 2008 seismic swarm with known source mechanisms is processed. The events or their slips respectively are clustered into two groups: (i) principal events with slip laying in the main fault plane and (ii) complementary events deviating from that plane. From those slips we constructed image of slip distribution (a new way of data/slip presentation) and from slip distribution and variations we hypothesized about foci zone properties. Namely, we propose that western block is more rigid and compact; the eastern block appears to be constituted from several sub blocks which can interact with each other during the swarm course. Our hypothesis is supported by similar image constructed from relative rupture velocities, which we consider as independent data. The proposed structural model agrees with the existence of the different observed types of source mechanisms. and Kolář Petr, Boušková Alena.
The paper presents selected results of seismological observations in Silesia and northern Moravia between 01/2004 - 08/2008, which are based on interpretation of three-component digital recordings at solitary seismic stations operated by the Institute of Geonics of the ASCR Ostrava (IGN) distributed in the region under investigation. Five seismic stations had recorded local tectonic seismic events in a continuous regime until 12/2005, when the grant project GA CR No. 205/03/0999 terminated. Meanwhile, the Ostrava - Krásné Pole (OKC) seismic station have continued in operation as a part of the Czech regional seismological network since 1983 up to present. Other three stations have been operating in a so-called triggered regime. At the mid-January 2007, seismic station in Klokočov village was re-opened in continuous regime. During 55 months of observation, 90 tectonic events have been detected at one or more seismic stations mentioned above. However, database of the Institute of Physics of the Earth of the MU contains more than 640 microearthquakes during the same time. This discrepancy is caused mainly due to a higher concentration of microearthquake foci distributed all over the western part of the region under investigation where the IPE seismic stations are situated. On the other hand, the IGN seismic stations are spread predominantly within the eastern part of the territory, i.e. relatively far from the recent foci, and moreover, some stations are operated using the triggered regime., Karel Holub, Zdeněk Kaláb, Jaromír Knejzlík and Jana Rušajová., and Obsahuje bibliografii
Thessaly lies on the Aegean (micro-)plate, undergoing internal crustal deformation due to the plate relative motion against the adjacent Anatolian and Nubian plates. As a result, the whole Thessalian Basin was supposed to be under an extensional tectonic regime of N-S direction. However, the recent earthquake sequence of March 2021 which occurred close to the northwestern margin of the basin revealed NE-SW direction of extension. Based on 7-year GPS measurements recorded by stations installed within and around the basin we assessed four deformational parameters for Thessaly aiming at the understanding of the deformation processes that control the region. These parameters are i) the Maximum Horizontal Extension (MAHE), ii) the Total Velocity (TV), iii) the Maximum Shear Strain (MSS), and iv) the Area Strain (AS). The results show that during the monitoring period, Thessaly moved toward the S-SW with a simultaneous clockwise rotation and underwent dispersed deformation mostly associated with dilatation. Focusing on the epicentral area of the 2021 sequence, strain during the 7-year period was rather low in all three strain parameters, implying a mature stage of elastic strain accumulation before the fault rupture., Ilias Lazos, Sotirios Sboras, Konstantinos Chousianitis, Stylianos Bitharis, Evaggelos Mouzakiotis, Vassilios Karastathis, Christos Pikridas, Aristeidis Fotiou and Dimitris Galanakis., and Obsahuje bibliografii
The essential point for seismological observation in the northern part of Moravia, Czech Republic, is a permanent seismic station Ostrava - Krásné Pole (OKC) that is a part of the Czech regional seismological network (hereafter CRSN). Institute o f Geonics AS CR, v.v.i., has also operated temporary seismic stations in this region since 1997. Current seismological stations are located in an abandoned mine working located in Zlaté Hory and in cellars in Klokočov and castle Raduň near Opava. The natural seismicity is after the swarm of microearthquakes in the vicinity of Opava in 1993 very low now. In region under discussion, seismic manifestations generated by mining induced seismicity in Upper Silesian Coal Basin (both Karviná an d Polish parts) and in Legnica-Głogów Copper District (LGOM) are also detected. Significant part of observations in this region is made by the Institute of Physics of the Earth (hereafter IPE), Masaryk University Brno, and about 1000 microearthquakes have been detected during the last ten years with maximum local magnitude up to 1.9., Zdeněk Kaláb, Jaromír Knejzlík and Karel Holub., and Obsahuje bibliografické odkazy
An identification of the responsible faults for the destructive earthquakes of 1894 in the Atalanti region was carried out by employing a novel application of 3D finite-difference wavefield modeling. Several faults proposed in the literature were tested in detailed 3D simulations, by also utilizing a detailed local 3D velocity model, as well as the local topography. The assessment of the most probable sources for these events was based on the correlation of reported damages with the distribution of the simulated peak ground acceleration. Furthermore, the distribution of the spectral amplitudes at higher frequencies that are related to the resonant frequencies of the local buildings on that time period was also used as an indicator. The general effect of the local 3D subsurface structure on the propagation of the wavefield and the spatial distribution of the ground motion was also investigated. The Malessina fault was identified as a probable source for the main event of 20/4/1894 based on the results of the 3D modeling, whereas the 3D effect was found to be a highly contributing factor to the distribution of the simulated ground motion., Mouzakiotis Evangelos, Karastathis Vassilios, Voulgaris Nikolaos,Papadimitriou Panagiotis, Sboras Sotirios and Gerolymatos Ilias., and Obsahuje bibliografii
Parameters of finite seismic source model were determined for a set of 36 selected events of the West Bohemia 2000 earthquakes swarm (Ml from 1.7 to 3.0) using stopping phases method. Two stopping phases are generated along the source border where the rupture process terminates and these phases form Hilbert transform pair, which is also the criterion for their identification. Circular and e liptical source models were considered and corresponding source parameters were calculated by inverting interpreted stopping phases delays. As generalization of circular to elliptical model was found to be statistically insignificant, only results related to the circular source including error estimates are presented. Our results are in a good agreement with previously published theoretical formula concerning source radius and magnitude and also fairly well confirm general theoretical assumption about constant stress drop. The determined stress drop ranges between 1 - 10 MPa with the typical value of 2.4 MPa., Petr Kolář and Bohuslav Růžek., and Obsahuje bibliografické odkazy