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Start Over Creator Pekárová, Pavla Rights http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/

2. Estimating flash flood peak discharge in Gidra and Parná basin: case study for the 7-8 june 2011 flood

Creator:
Pekárová, Pavla, Svoboda, Aleš, Miklánek, Pavol, Škoda, Peter, Halmová, Dana, and Pekár, Ján
Format:
bez média and svazek
Type:
model:article and TEXT
Subject:
flash floods, Gidra and Parná Rivers, post-flood event analysis, runoff modeling, bleskové povodne, rieky Gidra a Parná, analýza povodní, and modelovanie odtoku
Language:
Slovak
Description:
We analyzed the runoff and its temporal distribution during the catastrophic flood events on river Gidra (32.9 km2 ) and Parná (37.86 km2 ) of the 7th June 2011. The catchments are located in the Small Carpathian Mountains, western Slovakia. Direct measurements and evaluation of the peak discharge values after such extreme events are emphasized in the paper including exceedance probabilities of peak flows and of their causal flash rainfall events. In the second part of the paper, plausible modeling mode is presented, using the NLC (Non Linear Cascade) rainfall-runoff model. Several hypothetical extreme flood events were simulated by the NLC model for both rivers. Also the flood runoff volumes are evaluated as basic information on the natural or artificial catchment storage. and Predložený príspevok analyzuje tvorbu a priebeh odtoku počas katastrofickej povodňovej situácie na Gidre (32,9 km2 ) a na Parnej (37,86 km2 ) dňa 7. 6. 2011. Povodia týchto tokov sa nachádzajú v Malých Karpatoch na západnom Slovensku. V príspevku sa kladie dôraz na priame zameranie a vyhodnotenie kulminačných prietokov po výskyte takýchto povodní. Diskutujú sa problémy vyjadrenia pravdepodobnosti prekročenia kulminačných prietokov a dažďov, ktoré ich spôsobili. V druhej časti príspevku je prezentovaný možný spôsob modelovania povodne jednoduchým zrážkovo-odtokovým modelom NLC. Daným modelom NLC sú následne simulované prietoky Gidry v stanici Píla a Parná v stanici Horné Orešany za extrémnej hypotetickej zrážkovej udalosti. Hodnotené sú objemy odtoku počas povodní, ako základný údaj pre reálny odhad ich prirodzeného alebo umelého zadržania.
Rights:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ and policy:public

4. Global drivers effect in multi-annual variability of runoff

Creator:
Fendeková, Miriam, Pekárová, Pavla, Fendek, Marián, Pekár, Ján, and Škoda, Peter
Format:
bez média and svazek
Type:
model:article and TEXT
Subject:
runoff variability, global climatic drivers, inter-relationships, Nitra River basin, and Slovakia
Language:
Slovak
Description:
Changes in runoff parameters are very important for Slovakia, where stream-flow discharges, being supplied by precipitation and groundwater runoff, are preferentially influenced by climatic conditions. Therefore, teleconnections between runoff parameters, climate parameters and global atmospheric drivers such as North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Pacific Oscillation, Quasi-biennial oscillation and solar activity were studied in the Nitra River Basin, Slovakia. Research was mostly based on records of 80 years (1931-2010) for discharges and baseflow, and 34 years for groundwater heads. Methods of autocorrelation, spectral analysis, cross-correlation and coherence function were used. Results of auto-correllograms for discharges, groundwater heads and base flow values showed a very distinct 11-year and 21-year periodicity. Spectrogram analysis documented the 11-year, 7.8-year, 3.6-year and 2.4-year periods in the discharge, precipitation and air temperature time series. The same cycles except of 11-years were also identified in the long-term series of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Pacific Oscillation indices. The cycle from approximately 2.3 to 2.4-years is most likely connected with Quasi-biennial oscillation. The close negative correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index and the hydrological surface and groundwater parameters can be used for their prediction within the same year and also for one year in advance.
Rights:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ and policy:public

5. Historic flood marks and flood frequency analysis of the Danube River at Bratislava, Slovakia

Creator:
Pekárová, Pavla, Halmová, Dana, Bačová Mitková, Veronika, Miklánek, Pavol, Pekár, Ján, and Škoda, Peter
Format:
bez média and svazek
Type:
model:article and TEXT
Subject:
historic floods, extreme flood peak, flood hazard, Danube River, and Bratislava
Language:
Slovak
Description:
In this paper we focused on the history of floods and extreme flood frequency analysis of the upper Danube River at Bratislava. Firstly, we briefly describe the flood marks found on the Danube River in the region of Bratislava, Slovakia, and provide an account of the floods’ consequences. Secondly, we analyzed the annual maximum discharge series for the period 1876–2012, including the most recent flood of June 2013. Thirdly, we compare the values of T-year design discharge computed with and without incorporating the historic floods (floods of the years 1501, 1682, and 1787 into the 138-year series of annual discharge peaks). There are unfortunately only a few historic flood marks preserved in Bratislava, but there are very important and old marks in neighbouring Hainburg and other Austrian cities upstream to Passau. The calculated T-year maximum discharge of the Danube at Bratislava for the period 1876-2010 without and with historic flood values have been compared. Our analysis showed that without incorporating the historic floods from the years 1501, 1682, and 1787 the 1000-year discharge calculated only with data from the instrumented period 1876- 2013 is 14,188 m3 s -1 , and it is lower compared to the 1000-year discharge of 14,803 m3 s -1 when the three historic floods are included. In general, the T-year discharge is higher throughout the whole spectrum of T-year discharges (10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500-year discharge) when the three historic floods are included. Incorporating historic floods into a time series of maximum annual discharge seems to exert a significant effect on the estimates of low probability floods. This has important implications for flood managements and estimation of flood design discharge.
Rights:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ and policy:public

6. Hydrological simulation of flood transformations in the upper Danube River: case study of large flood events

Creator:
Bačová Mitková, Veronika, Pekárová, Pavla, Miklánek, Pavol, and Pekár, Ján
Format:
bez média and svazek
Type:
model:article and TEXT
Subject:
Danube River, June 2013 flood, hydrological nonlinear river routing model, and catastrophic flood scenario
Language:
Slovak
Description:
The problem of understand natural processes as factors that restrict, limit or even jeopardize the interests of human society is currently of great concern. The natural transformation of flood waves is increasingly affected and disturbed by artificial interventions in river basins. The Danube River basin is an area of high economic and water management importance. Channel training can result in changes in the transformation of flood waves and different hydrographic shapes of flood waves compared with the past. The estimation and evolution of the transformation of historical flood waves under recent river conditions is only possible by model simulations. For this purpose a nonlinear reservoir cascade model was constructed. The NLN-Danube nonlinear reservoir river model was used to simulate the transformation of flood waves in four sections of the Danube River from Kienstock (Austria) to Štúrovo (Slovakia) under relatively recent river reach conditions. The model was individually calibrated for two extreme events in August 2002 and June 2013. Some floods that occurred on the Danube during the period of 1991-2002 were used for the validation of the model. The model was used to identify changes in the transformational properties of the Danube channel in the selected river reach for some historical summer floods (1899, 1954 1965 and 1975). Finally, a simulation of flood wave propagation of the most destructive Danube flood of the last millennium (August 1501) is discussed.
Rights:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ and policy:public

7. Identification and assessment of long-term trends of surface water quality determinands in Slovakia for implementation of the EU WFD

Creator:
Pekárová, Pavla, Miklánek, Pavol, Rončák, Peter, Adámková, Juliana, Chriašteľ, Robert, Metelková, Miroslava, and Pekár, Ján
Format:
bez média and svazek
Type:
model:article and TEXT
Subject:
long-term trends, water quality, WFD 2000/60/EC, Slovak Republic, Hron River, dlhodobé trendy, kvalita vody, smernica 2000/60/EC, Slovensko, and Hron
Language:
Slovak
Description:
The procedure for identification of the long-term trends in the individual water quality determinands in surface water is described in the study. The methodology is based on requirements of the Directive 2000/60/EC and the existing water quality data in the database of the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute. The methodology gives guidance for estimation of following issues: - influence of the length of the series on trends of development; - methods for calculation of the statistical characteristics; - methods for identification of the increasing and decreasing trends, as well as of the trend reversal point; - selection of the decision criteria for assessment of the trend significance. The methodology was applied for the trend analysis of the selected pollutants in the middle part of Hron River at Salkova near Banska Bystrica city. The results show that the rapid increase of pollution in 1970`s is followed by gradual improvement of the surface water quality in next period. and V predloženej štúdii je opísaný postup pri identifikácii dlhodobých trendov jednotlivých ukazovateľov kvality vody v povrchových tokoch. Pri vypracovaní metodiky sa vychádzalo z požiadaviek smernice 2000/60/EC a z existujúcich údajov o kvalite vody v databáze Slovenského hydrometeorologického ústavu. Vypracovaná metodika navrhuje konkrétne postupy na určovanie, napr. - vplyvu dĺžky obdobia na vývojové trendy; - spôsobov výpočtu štatistických ukazovateľov; - spôsobov identifikácie trendov rastu a poklesu, ako i bodov obratu trendu; - kritérií na rozhodovanie o významnosti jednotlivých trendov. Navrhnutá metodika bola aplikovaná pri analýze vybraných ukazovateľov kvality vody v mieste odberu Hron-Šalková , situovanom pri Banskej Bystrici. Z výsledkov vyplýva, že po prudkom náraste znečistenia stredného Hrona v sedemdesiatych rokoch dvadsiateho storočia dochádza k postupnému zlepšovaniu kvality povrchových vôd v tomto úseku.
Rights:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ and policy:public

8. Identification of long-term high-flow regime changes in selected stations along the Danube River

Creator:
Pekárová, Pavla, Pramuk, Branislav, Halmová, Dana, Miklánek, Pavol, Prohaska, Stevan, and Pekár, Ján
Format:
bez média and svazek
Type:
model:article and TEXT
Subject:
floods, hydrological regime, long streamflow series, Danube River, flow thresholds, and flood trends
Language:
Slovak
Description:
The aim of the paper is to study spatial and temporal changes in the magnitude, duration and frequency of high flows in the Danube basin. A hydrological series of the mean daily discharges from 20 gauging stations (operated minimally since 1930) were used for the analysis of changes in the daily discharges. The high flow events were classified into three classes: high flow pulses, small floods, and large floods. For each year and for each class, the means of the peak discharges, the number and duration of events, and the rate of changes of the rising and falling limbs of the waves were determined. The long-term trends of the annual time series obtained were analyzed and statistically evaluated. The long-term high flow changes were found to be different in three individual high flow classes. The duration of the category of high flow pulses is decreasing at 19 stations on the Danube and is statistically significant at the Linz, Vienna, Bratislava and Orsova stations. The frequency of the high flow pulses is increasing in all 20 stations. Also, the rising and falling rates of the high flow pulse category are increasing at the majority of the stations. The long-term trends of the selected characteristics of the small floods are very similar to the trends of the high flow pulses, i.e., the duration of small floods is decreasing, and their mean number per year is increasing. In the category of large floods the changes were not proved.
Rights:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ and policy:public

9. Identifikácia dlhodobých trendov a fluktuácií hydrologických radov. Časť I.. Hodrickov-Prescottov filter a metóda kombinovaného periodogramu

Creator:
Pekárová, Pavla and Pekár, Ján
Format:
bez média and svazek
Type:
model:article and TEXT
Subject:
time series analysis, hodrick-prescott filter, long-term trends, cyclicity, combined periodogram, surface waters, analýza časových radov, Hodrickov-Prescottov filter, dlhodobé trendy, cyklickosť, kombinovaný periodogram, and povrchové vody
Language:
Slovak
Description:
In recent years the issue of the natural hydrological and meteorological time series fluctuation has been discussed more and more intensively. As the series of measured hydrological and climatological data become longer and easier worldwide accessible it is possible to deal with a large amount of historical data in their complexity. Handling these data we cannot go without new methods of mathematical statistics and mathematical analysis. In the study some methods of the long-term trends identification in the hydrological time series are presented. Apart from the classical methods, like that of moving averages, the paper focuses in detail on the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter. The HP filter is applicable to the trend analysis of the long-term hydrological time series. Next, a new method of the period length identification, the combined periodogramm method, is theoretically developed. Using this method the long cycles length identification becomes more precise. Here, the cycle is considered to be long when it takes the length of about 1/6 to 1/3 of the measured time series. Identification of such long cycles is important with respect to the future hydrospherical processes forecast. Results of application of these methods to the Slovak hydrological time series are presented in the second part of the study. and V posledných rokoch sa začína čoraz viac diskutovať na tému prirodzených fluktuácií hydrologických a meteorologických radov. So stále sa predlžujúcimi radmi meraných hydrologických a klimatických údajov a zlepšujúcim sa prístupom k meraným údajom na celom svete možno komplexnejšie spracovať veľký počet historicky nameraných časových radov. Pri spracovávaní týchto údajov sa nezaobídeme bez rozvoja nových metód štatistiky a matematickej analýzy. V predloženej štúdii boli opísané metódy identifikácie dlhodobého trendu hydrologických radov. Popri už klasických metódach (metóde kĺzavých priemerov) bol v tejto práci rozpracovaný Hodrickov-Prescottov (HP) filter. HP filter možno aplikovať na analýzu trendu dlhodobých ročných hydrologických časových radov. Ďalej bola v štúdii teoreticky rozpracovaná nová metóda identifikácie dĺžky periód časových radov - metóda kombinovaného periodogramu. Uvedená metóda spresňuje identifikáciu dĺžky dlhých cyklov, teda cyklov s dĺžkou okolo 1/6 až 1/3 meraného časového radu. Práve identifikácia týchto dlhých cyklov je veľmi dôležitá pri odhade budúceho vývoja hydrosféry. Praktické použitie uvedených metód na slovenských hydrologických radoch je prezentované v druhej časti štúdie.
Rights:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ and policy:public

10. Identifikácia dlhodobých trendov a fluktuácií hydrologických radov. Časť II.. Výsledky

Creator:
Pekárová, Pavla
Format:
bez média and svazek
Type:
model:article and TEXT
Subject:
time series analysis, hodrick-prescott filter, long-term trends, cyclicity, combined periodogram, analýza časových radov, Hodrickov-Prescottov filter, dlhodobé trendy, cyklickosť, and kombinovaný periodogram
Language:
Slovak
Description:
In the second part of the paper long-term trends and cyclicity in hydrological time series are identified using both the Hodrick-Presoctt (HP) filter and the combined periodogram. The HP filter seems to be a good tool for analyzing annual time series. It clearly identifies the decrease in the Slovak rainfall time series 1900-1990 and the increase in those of 1990-2000. Using the combined periodogram method oscillation cycles in the discharge time series of main Slovak rivers were identified. These cycles are likely to be characteristic for all Slovak rivers in general. This means the discharge time series are not stationary, they involve a cyclical component. To calculate hydrological characteristics it is necessary to have such a sufficiently long time series that involves both complete wet and dry periods. Because of existence of an about 29 year cycle, a period consisting of 30 years is very suitable. From the long-term point of view, both Danube and Morava Rivers possess steady trends while in the Bodrog and Vah rivers a decrease in discharge occurred during the XX Century. This decrease was mainly due to lower annual rainfalls in Slovakia. When determine long-term discharges, an oscillation of wet and dry periods should be taken into account. The trends should be determined for closed cycles, i.e., either from minimum to minimum or from maximum to maximum. From the long-term trends analysis it follows that the linear trend is not adequate to extrapolate the hydrological time series to the future. and V druhej časti štúdie je identifikovaný dlhodobý trend a cyklickosť slovenských hydrologických časových radov použitím Hodrickovho-Prescottovho (HP) filtra a metódou kombinovaného periodogramu. HP filter sa ukázal byť dobrým nástrojom na analýzu časových radov ročných údajov. Zreteľne identifikuje pokles zrážkových úhrnov na územie SR v období 1900-1990 a nárast úhrnov v rokoch 1990-2000. Metódou kombinovaného periodogramu boli identifikované cykly kolísania prietokových radov najvýznamnejších slovenských tokov. Je pravdepodobné, že tieto cykly sú charakteristické pre všetky slovenské toky. Prietokové rady zahŕňajú v sebe cyklickú zložku. Pri výpočtoch hydrologických charakteristík je potrebné hydrologické charakteristiky počítať z dostatočne dlhých radov zachytávajúcich celý cyklus - mokré i suché obdobie. Tridsaťročné obdobie na výpočet hydrologických charakteristík tokov je vzhľadom na existenciu ca 29-ročného cyklu veľmi vhodné. Z dlhodobého hľadiska Dunaj a Morava majú vyrovnaný trend vodnosti, v Bodrogu a vo Váhu došlo v 20. storočí k poklesu odtoku. Na tomto poklese majú najväčší podiel nižšie ročné zrážkové úhrny na územie SR. Pri určovaní dlhodobých trendov prietokov je potrebné brať do úvahy cykly striedania sa suchých a mokrých období. Vývojové trendy je potrebné určovať za obdobia uzavretých cyklov - od minima po minimum, alebo od maxima po maximum. Z analýzy dlhodobých trendov vyplýva, že použitie lineárneho trendu nie je vhodné na extrapoláciu hydrologických radov do budúcnosti.
Rights:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ and policy:public