The paper addresses the prediction of roll-waves occurrence in mud-flows. The spatial growth of a point-wise disturbance is analytically described, based on the linearized flow model of a Herschel and Bulkley fluid, in the neighborhood of an initial uniform base condition. The theoretical achievements allow to generalize to mud-flows the minimum channel criterion commonly used for the prediction of roll-waves in clear-water. The applicability of the criterion is discussed through the comparison with literature laboratory data concerning unstable flows without rollwaves.