In this study, the FRIER rainfall-runoff model with distributed parameters was developed to assess changes in runoff and water balance due to changes in land use and climate. The water balance was calculated at 3 levels: on the surface and in unsaturated and saturated zones. Six basins from the central and eastern parts of Slovakia were selected on the basis of their similar size, but different topography, land use, soil texture and climate: the upper Hornád, the upper Hron, the Poprad, the Rimava, the Slaná and the Torysa River basins. Model parameters were estimated using data from the period from June 1998 to May 2000 in daily time steps. The differences and similarities of the hydrologic processes in individual basins were investigated during the calibration period. Several scenarios of changes in land use and two simple scenarios of changes in climate were developed to estimate the impact of these changes on water balance and runoff. The changes in the hydrological regime were compared and discussed. and V posledných rokoch sa veľmi často hodnotia a diskutujú vplyvy zmien využitia krajiny a klímy na procesy hydrologickej bilancie, aj keď miera ich vplyvu na hydrologický režim sa najmä pre komplexnosť týchto procesov veľmi ťažko kvantifikuje. Na odhad vplyvu zmien využitia krajiny a klímy na odtok a zložky hydrologickej bilancie bol vyvinutý zrážkovo-odtokový model FRIER s rozčlenenými parametrami. Na základe podobnej veľkosti, ale rôznej topografie, využitia krajiny a pôdnej štruktúry bolo vybraných šesť pilotných povodí: povodie horného Hornádu, horného Hrona, Popradu, Rimavy, Slanej a Torysy. Parametre modelu boli kalibrované pre obdobie jún 1998 - máj 2000 v dennom časovom kroku. Na základe simulácií hydrologickej bilancie pre súčasný stav sa hodnotili rozdiely a podobnosti procesov tvorby odtoku v jednotlivých povodiach. Odtok a zložky hydrologickej bilancie boli následne simulované pre sedem scenárov zmien využitia krajiny a dva jednoduché scenáre zmeny zrážok a teploty vzduchu. Zmeny odtoku a hydrologickej bilancie boli porovnané a diskutované.
Snow accumulation and melt are highly variable. Therefore, correct modeling of spatial variability of the snowmelt, timing and magnitude of catchment runoff still represents a challenge in mountain catchments for flood forecasting. The article presents the setup and results of detailed field measurements of snow related characteristics in a mountain microcatchment (area 59 000 m2 , mean altitude 1509 m a. s. l.) in the Western Tatra Mountains, Slovakia obtained in winter 2015. Snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements at 27 points documented a very large spatial variability through the entire winter. For instance, range of the SWE values exceeded 500 mm at the end of the accumulation period (March 2015). Simple snow lysimeters indicated that variability of snowmelt and discharge measured at the catchment outlet corresponded well with the rise of air temperature above 0°C. Temperature measurements at soil surface were used to identify the snow cover duration at particular points. Snow melt duration was related to spatial distribution of snow cover and spatial patterns of snow radiation. Obtained data together with standard climatic data (precipitation and air temperature) were used to calibrate and validate the spatially distributed hydrological model MIKE-SHE. The spatial redistribution of input precipitation seems to be important for modeling even on such a small scale. Acceptable simulation of snow water equivalents and snow duration does not guarantee correct simulation of peakflow at shorttime (hourly) scale required for example in flood forecasting. Temporal variability of the stream discharge during the snowmelt period was simulated correctly, but the simulated discharge was overestimated.
In many Austrian catchments in recent decades an increase in the mean annual air temperature and precipitation has been observed, but only a small change in the mean annual runoff. The main objective of this paper is (1) to analyze alterations in the performance of a conceptual hydrological model when applied in changing climate conditions and (2) to assess the factors and model parameters that control these changes. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model (the TUW model) was calibrated and validated in 213 Austrian basins from 1981–2010. The changes in the runoff model’s efficiency have been compared with changes in the mean annual precipitation and air temperature and stratified for basins with dominant snowmelt and soil moisture processes. The results indicate that while the model’s efficiency in the calibration period has not changed over the decades, the values of the model’s parameters and hence the model’s performance (i.e., the volume error and the runoff model’s efficiency) in the validation period have changed. The changes in the model’s performance are greater in basins with a dominant soil moisture regime. For these basins, the average volume error which was not used in calibration has increased from 0% (in the calibration periods 1981–1990 or 2001–2010) to 9% (validation period 2001–2010) or –8% (validation period 1981–1990), respectively. In the snow-dominated basins, the model tends to slightly underestimate runoff volumes during its calibration (average volume error = –4%), but the changes in the validation periods are very small (i.e., the changes in the volume error are typically less than 1–2%). The model calibrated in a colder decade (e.g., 1981–1990) tends to overestimate the runoff in a warmer and wetter decade (e.g., 2001–2010), particularly in flatland basins. The opposite case (i.e., the use of parameters calibrated in a warmer decade for a colder, drier decade) indicates a tendency to underestimate runoff. A multidimensional analysis by regression trees showed that the change in the simulated runoff volume is clearly related to the change in precipitation, but the relationship is not linear in flatland basins. The main controlling factor of changes in simulated runoff volumes is the magnitude of the change in precipitation for both groups of basins. For basins with a dominant snowmelt runoff regime, the controlling factors are also the wetness of the basins and the mean annual precipitation. For basins with a soil moisture regime, landcover (forest) plays an important role.
Large-scale forest dieback was reported in recent decades in many parts of the world. In Slovakia, the most endangered species is Norway spruce (Picea Abies). Spruce dieback affects also indigenous mountain forests. We analysed changes in snow cover characteristics in the disturbed spruce forest representing the tree line zone (1420 m a.s.l.) in the Western Tatra Mountains, Slovakia, in five winter seasons 2013–2017. Snow depth, density and water equivalent (SWE) were measured biweekly (10–12 times per winter) at four sites representing the living forest (Living), disturbed forest with dead trees (Dead), forest opening (Open) and large open area outside the forest (Meadow). The data confirmed statistically significant differences in snow depth between the living and disturbed forest. These differences increased since the third winter after forest dieback. The differences in snow density between the disturbed and living forest were in most cases not significant. Variability of snow density expressed by coefficient of variation was approximately half that of the snow depth. Forest dieback resulted in a significant increase (about 25%) of the water amount stored in the snow while the snowmelt characteristics (snowmelt beginning and time of snow disappearance) did not change much. Average SWE calculated for all measurements conducted during five winters increased in the sequence Living < Dead < Meadow < Open. SWE variability expressed by the coefficient of variation increased in the opposite order.