Responsiveness of Lepidoptera phenology to climate has been detected in a number of species during the current trend in global warming. There is still a question of whether climate signals would be evident in historical data. In this paper we examine the climatic response of 155 species of moths and butterflies collected during the period 1866-1884 in Wiltshire, southern England. In general, species responded to increased temperature in the previous October by delayed appearance and to increased temperature in the current spring by advanced appearance. Thus, differential changes in temperatures of the autumn and spring could well affect changes in the relative pattern of the phenology of species. Attributes influencing the species' ecology were examined to see if they influenced temperature responsiveness. In general, few consistent effects emerged, though responsiveness to climate was found to be greater for species eclosing later in the year, specifically to the previous autumn temperatures, and to hibernal environment, increasingly for species less exposed to air temperatures. These findings warn against expecting simple responses to climate warming.
The number of species of migratory Lepidoptera (moths and butterflies) reported each year at a site in the south of the UK has been rising steadily. This number is very strongly linked to rising temperatures in SW Europe. It is anticipated that further climate warming within Europe will increase the numbers of migratory Lepidoptera reaching the UK and the consequences of this invasion need urgent attention.