Computational Modeling of Electricity Consumption Using Econometric Variables Based on Neural Network Training Algorithms

Title:

Computational Modeling of Electricity Consumption Using Econometric Variables Based on Neural Network Training Algorithms

Creator:

Usha, T. M. and Appavu alias Balamurugan, S.

Identifier:

https://cdk.lib.cas.cz/client/handle/uuid:97418a57-c8aa-4c52-a221-f36e410e4e62
uuid:97418a57-c8aa-4c52-a221-f36e410e4e62
doi:10.14311/NNW.2017.27.007

Subject:

activation functions, neural network model, neural network training algorithms, Bayesian regularization training algorithm, time series forecasting, and electricity demand forecasting

Type:

model:article and TEXT

Format:

bez média and svazek

Description:

Recently, there has been a significant emphasis in the forecasting of the electricity demand due to the increase in the power consumption. Energy demand forecasting is a very important task in the electric power distribution system to enable appropriate planning for future power generation. Quantitative and qualitative methods have been utilizedpreviously for the electricity demand forecasting. Due to the limitations inthe availability of data, these methods fail to provide effective results. With the development of the advanced tools, these methods are replaced by efficient forecasting techniques. This paper presents the computational modeling of electricity consumption based on the Neural Network (NN) training algorithms. The main aim of the work is to determine the optimal training algorithm for electricity demand forecasting. From the experimental analysis, it is concluded that the Bayesian regularization training algorithm exhibits low relative error and high correlation coefficient than other training algorithms. Thus, the Bayesian Regularization training algorithm is selected as the optimal training algorithm for the effective prediction of the electricity demand. Finally, the economic input attributes are forecasted for next 15 years using time series forecasting. Using this forecasted economic attributes and with the optimal Bayesian Regularization training algorithm, the electricity demand for the next 15 years ispredicted. The comparative analysis of the NN training algorithms for the proposed dataset and larger datasets obtained from the UCI repository and American Statistical Association shows that the Bayesian Regularization training algorithm yields higher correlation value and lower relative error than other training algorithms.

Language:

English

Rights:

http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/
policy:public

Source:

Neural network world: international journal on neural and mass-parallel computing and information systems | 2017 Volume:27 | Number:1

Harvested from:

CDK

Metadata only:

false