The Peak Over Threshold Method (POT) was used as an alternative technique to the traditional analysis of annual discharge maxima of the Danube River. The POT method was applied to a time-series of daily discharge values covering a period of 60 years (1931-1990) at the following gauge stations: Achleiten, Kienstock, Wien, Bratislava and Nagymaros. The first part of the paper presents the use of the POT method and how it was applied to daily discharges. All mean daily discharges exceeding a defined threshold were considered in the POT analysis. Based on the POT waves independence criteria the maximum daily discharge data were selected. Two theoretical log-normal (LN) and Log-Pearson III (LP3) distributions were used to calculate the probability of exceeding annual maximum discharges. Performance of the POT method was compared to the theoretical distributions (LN, LP3). The influence of the data series length on the estimation of the N-year discharges by POT method was carried out too. Therefore, with regard to later regulations along the Danube channel bank the 40, 20 and 10-year time data series were chosen in early of the 60-year period and second analysed time data series were selected from the end of the 60-year period. Our results suggest that the POT method can provide adequate and comparable estimates of N-year discharges for more stations with short temporal coverage. and Príspevok sa zaoberá analýzou extrémnych hydrologických udalostí na Dunaji metódou Peak Over Threshold (POT). Metóda POT sa používa ako alternatíva určovania N-ročných prietokov k metóde ročných maxím pri analýzach extrémnych hydrologických udalostí. Pre výskyt vrcholových prietokov sa zvyčajne predpokladá Poissonova distribúcia. Základnými vstupnými údajmi pre štatistickú analýzu sú 60-ročné časové rady priemerných denných prietokov a 60-ročné rady maximálnych ročných prietokov v nami zvolených staniciach: Achleiten, Kienstock, Viedeň, Bratislava a Nagymaros - za obdobie 1931-1990. Extrémne hydrologické udalosti na Dunaji boli analyzované metódou POT, ktorá zahŕňa všetky maximálne denné prietoky povodní za dané obdobie, presahujúce zvolenú prahovú hodnotu. Na zostavenie teoretickej čiary prekročenia boli vybrané dve teoretické rozdelenia pravdepodobnosti: logaritmicko-normálne rozdelenie (LN) a Pearsonovo rozdelenie III. typu (LP III). Druhým cieľom príspevku bolo analyzovať vplyv zmeny dĺžky časového radu na odhad N-ročných prietokov. V práci boli 60-ročné časové rady údajov skrátené na 40, 20 a 10-ročné rady. V závere sme porovnali a zhodnotili získané výsledky štatistických odhadov N-ročných prietokov vo zvolených staniciach. Z výsledkov analýzy vyplýva, že metóda POT dáva pomerne dobré odhady N-ročných prietokov aj pre krátke časové rady údajov.
Authors propose a beneficial methodology for hydrological planning in their study. Prospective evaluations of the basins' net capacity can be done using the technique presented. The HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Modelling System) software can be used to estimate in a basin, the sediment emitted. For a certain precipitation, this methodology allows estimating, within a certain range, the gradual blockage of a reservoir, and even a projected date for total blockage. This has some applications to adopt corrective measures that prevent or delay the planned blockage deadlines. The model is of the semi-distributed type, estimating the generation and emission of sediments by sub-basins. The integration of different return periods in HEC-HMS with a semi-distributed model by sub-basins and the application of a mathematical model are the differentiating element of this research. The novelty of this work is to allow prognosing the reservoir sedimentation rate of basins in a local and regional scale with a medium and large temporary framework. The developed methodology allows public institutions to take decisions concerning hydrological planning. It has been applied to the case of "Charco Redondo" reservoir, in Cádiz, Andalusia, in southern Spain. Applying the methodology to this case, an average soil degradation of the reservoir basin has been estimated. Therefore, it is verified that in 50 years the reservoir is expected to lose 8.4% of its capacity.
Substantial evidence shows that the frequency of hydrological extremes has been changing and is likely to continue to change in the near future. Non-stationary models for flood frequency analyses are one method of accounting for these changes in estimating design values. The objective of the present study is to compare four models in terms of goodness of fit, their uncertainties, the parameter estimation methods and the implications for estimating flood quantiles. Stationary and non-stationary models using the GEV distribution were considered, with parameters dependent on time and on annual precipitation. Furthermore, in order to study the influence of the parameter estimation approach on the results, the maximum likelihood (MLE) and Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) methods were compared. The methods were tested for two gauging stations in Slovenia that exhibit significantly increasing trends in annual maximum (AM) discharge series. The comparison of the models suggests that the stationary model tends to underestimate flood quantiles relative to the non-stationary models in recent years. The model with annual precipitation as a covariate exhibits the best goodness-of-fit performance. For a 10% increase in annual precipitation, the 10-year flood increases by 8%. Use of the model for design purposes requires scenarios of future annual precipitation. It is argued that these may be obtained more reliably than scenarios of extreme event precipitation which makes the proposed model more practically useful than alternative models.